District 14-5A predictions

Last year, you couldn’t fit the edge of a credit card between the difference in the top three District 14-5A high school football teams. The three - The Woodlands High School football team, Lufkin and A&M Consolidated – all tied for first place in the final district standings.

But it’s a new season and the canyon that divided the “Top Three” and the rest of the district has shrunk down to the size of a small pot hole.

A&M Consolidated (2-1) and The Woodlands (2-2) appear to be the top of the class again as the 14-5A season kicks off this week. But it’s not anywhere near as clear-cut as last season.

The Tigers won their first two games (Copperas Cove and Waco Midway) of the 2013 season and were very impressive in a 38-32 loss to Austin Westlake. Lightning and heavy thunderstorms forced the cancellation of their final pre-district game last week.

They’ll find out real quick where they stand, opening district on Friday at Lufkin before hosting The Woodlands the following week. Tigers quarterback Kobe Miller has already thrown for nearly 1,000 yards in just three games this season.

Predicted finish: First

The Highlanders (2-2) lost to Skyline and Katy in pre-district games. No shame there. The Woodlands won’t face anyone in this district of that quality but will still need to bring it every night in a league that will enjoy for the first time in quite a while, that thing called “parity.”

The Highlanders defense will keep them in every district game and quarterback Dylan Larsen and running back Patrick Carr will provide enough offense to win most, if not all, of them.

Predicted finish: Second

College Park (3-1) and Lufkin (1-3) are interesting stories.

The Cavaliers are right where they were a year ago when they opened district with a heartbreaking loss to Oak Ridge and the season spiraled downward from there. The Oct. 4 district opener with the War Eagles could once again prove to be the litmus test for this team, solid on defense but still seeking an identity on offense.

Tristan Newman, Greg Biehn, Connor Weaverling, Eric Harrell and Jayvon Jackson have been outstanding on the defensive side of the football. Stephan Johnson has three interceptions already.

Predicted finish: Third

Lufkin enters the district season with three consecutive losses and is the only 14-5A team to enter district play with a losing record. The Panthers haven’t lost three consecutive games since 2008. That was also the last time the Panthers lost more than one game in a row. They went 7-5 that year, including a 4-1 league mark, and advanced two rounds deep into the playoffs.

The Panthers enter district play following a 55-30 loss to Longview. They lost 45-14 to that same team last year and went on to win a share of the district championship. Is there such thing as a good luck loss?

Predicted finish: Fourth

Now it gets real interesting. Oak Ridge (4-0), Conroe (3-1) and Bryan (2-2) are three teams that could very easily finish anywhere between third and seventh place in a district season that is about to get wild and wacky.

Come to think of it, it’s already been wild and wacky. Oak Ridge is the only undefeated team in the district. The War Eagles’ 1-9 2012 season seems like a distant memory. Head coach Dereck Rush, in just his second season at Oak Ridge, has turned around the program in a hurry. It’s going to be a joy to watch this team the rest of the season.

The War Eagles are averaging better than 300 rushing yards per game with sophomore quarterback Braden Letney and junior running back Kwame Etwi combining for more than 500 yards total between them.

This program has done a complete 180 and in any other year in this district, a playoff berth would almost certainly be a foregone conclusion.

Predicted finish: Fifth

Conroe is yet another in the long line of improved teams in 14-5A. The last time the Tigers entered district play with a winning record was 2008 (3-2). They went on for a 6-5 season (3-2 in district) and made the playoffs. It should surprise no one if that feat is once again accomplishment this season.

Senior quarterback Stedman Bell leads an offense averaging 38 points per game.

Predicted finish: Sixth

The Bryan Vikings are also markedly improved from last year; just how much improved remains to be seen. They defeated Magnolia 42-28 but also lost to Midway (38-7) and Hendrickson (42-17).

Predicted finish: Seventh